Best Picture

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don’t Look Up
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

We did it! After years of dancing around with 8 or 9 or 7 Best Picture nominees, the Academy finally brought it back to 10 nominees. Not an amazing crop this year but save one of the nominated films, I at least liked all of the selections in this field and I loved a few of them. My beloved Pig got stuffed but I can’t count that as a surprise; it did well among critics groups but recency bias always factors in with the Academy and a July release gutted its chances. The inclusion of Drive My Car is a welcome surprise; I hope the rest of the country will be able to see it one way or another sooner rather than later. The Power of the Dog leads the tally with 12 nominations and it will be difficult to overcome; the overwhelming awards love for it still confounds me but hey, at least Netflix will finally have the Best Picture trophy they’ve wanted for the past few years. Still, I’ll be stumping for CODA, a movie I met last February and have tried to champion ever since.

My Prediction: The Power of the Dog
My Vote: CODA
Overlooked: Pig

Best Director

• Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
• Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
• Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
• Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
• Steven Spielberg – West Side Story

Two jaw-dropping headlines here: Steven Spielberg is the first director to have been nominated in six different decades and Jane Campion is the only female director to have been nominated more than once in the category. She didn’t take home the statue for The Piano in 1994 — incidentally, Spielberg did for Schindler’s List — but she should have a much better chance this time for her sinewy storytelling in the Awards frontrunner. I’m never going to be upset with a Paul Thomas Anderson nod and again, Hamaguchi is a welcome surprise with his focused and thoughtful direction in what should be a lock for Best International Feature. The absence of Denis Villeneuve is puzzling, given that his film is second in nomination tally only to Dog and his vision of Dune is mesmerizing and unforgettable. Academy members know that he was also in charge of bringing together all the technical aspects that were nominated, right…?

My Prediction: Jane Campion
My Vote: Paul Thomas Anderson
Overlooked: Denis Villeneuve – Dune

Best Actor

• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick… BOOM!
• Will Smith – King Richard
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

This may come down to Cumberbatch and Smith but I’d give the edge to the latter. Smith’s been playing at an Oscar for 20 years since his nomination in Ali and his work in awards season weepies like The Pursuit of Happyness, Seven Pounds and Collateral Beauty (difficult to type that last one without laughing) suggests that he’s finally worn the Academy down. Bardem slept-walked through Ricardos but at least Garfield didn’t get nominated for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Washington should win this but the Academy doesn’t award Shakespeare like it used to and Macbeth‘s absence in the other major categories all but guarantees that he’ll be overlooked. Speaking of overlooked, if Pig was going to get nominated for anything, I figured it would’ve been here for one of Cage’s absolute best performances. Obviously the Academy prefers their animals to be Cage-free.

My Prediction: Will Smith
My Vote: Denzel Washington
Overlooked: Nicolas Cage – Pig

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
• Penélope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer

All things considered, this is a pretty strong field. The most surprising inclusion to me is Cruz, who was indeed excellent in Parallel Mothers but that movie hasn’t had much of an impact on the whole of the awards conversation. The Kidman nod is totally expected and the cynical side of me thinks she’ll go home with gold again after winning for The Hours almost 20 years ago. She and Chastain bet that the Academy would still have a soft spot for biopic leads and the wager seemed to pay off. Colman’s upset win for The Favourite was one of the sole joys for me in watching the 2019 ceremony but I’m still mixed on The Lost Daughter; I actually preferred her sinister voice work in The Mitchells vs. the Machines. The headline leading the “snub cycle” yesterday was Lady Gaga’s absence here but I would say a performance in another Ridley Scott film from last year, Jodie Comer’s in The Last Duel, was even more deserving of attention.

My Prediction: Nicole Kidman
My Vote: Kristen Stewart
Overlooked: Jodie Comer – The Last Duel

Best Supporting Actor

• Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
• Troy Kotsur – CODA
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
• J. K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

My Prediction: Kodi Smit-McPhee
My Vote: Troy Kotsur
Overlooked: Richard Jenkins – The Humans

Best Supporting Actress

• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
• Judi Dench – Belfast
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

My Prediction: Ariana DeBose
My Vote: Ariana DeBose
Overlooked: Martha Plimpton – Mass

The most disappointing aspect of both of these Supporting categories is the lack of performers from Mass, particularly Martha Plimpton. Maybe the film was always going to be a tough sell to the Academy for other major categories but it’s difficult to deny the power behind the ensemble work of the IFJA Best Film winner. The Humans, another bruising but terrific film marked by a stellar ensemble cast, could have been recognized here too. I know Richard Jenkins has been nominated two times before but he really is one of the best around; I hope he finds the “right” Oscar-friendly role at some point. Smit-McPhee is the one to beat in the Supporting Actor field but I’ll be rooting hard for Kotsur, the first deaf actor ever to be nominated for an Oscar and an huge part of CODA‘s emotional resonance. Dunst was thought to be the frontrunner for Supporting Actress for a bit but recent awards have pushed favor towards DeBose, one of the best aspects of a film filled with highlights.

Best Original Screenplay

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
• Don’t Look Up – Adam McKay
• King Richard – Zach Baylin
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
• The Worst Person in the World – Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier

My Prediction: Licorice Pizza
My Vote: Licorice Pizza
Overlooked: C’mon C’mon

Best Adapted Screenplay

• CODA – Sian Heder
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe
• Dune – Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts & Eric Roth
• The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion

My Prediction: The Power of the Dog
My Vote: CODA
Overlooked: The Green Knight

Best Animated Feature Film

• Encanto
• Flee
• Luca
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines
• Raya and the Last Dragon

My Prediction: Encanto
My Vote: The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Overlooked: Cryptozoo

Best International Feature Film

• Drive My Car
• Flee
• The Hand of God
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
• The Worst Person in the World

My Prediction: Drive My Car
My Vote: Drive My Car
Overlooked: Riders of Justice

Best Documentary – Feature

• Ascension
• Attica
• Flee
• Summer of Soul
• Writing with Fire

My Prediction: Summer of Soul
My Vote: Flee
Overlooked: The Velvet Underground

Best Documentary – Short Subject

• Audible
• Lead Me Home
• The Queen of Basketball
• Three Songs for Benazir
• When We Were Bullies

My Prediction: The Queen of Basketball
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
• The Dress
• The Long Goodbye
• On My Mind
• Please Hold

My Prediction: The Long Goodbye
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Animated Short Film

• Affairs of the Art
• Bestia
• BoxBallet
• Robin Robin
• The Windshield Wiper

My Prediction: Robin Robin
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Production Design

• Dune – Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
• Nightmare Alley – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
• The Power of the Dog – Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
• West Side Story – Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo

My Prediction: Dune
My Vote: Dune
Overlooked: The French Dispatch

Best Cinematography

• Dune – Greig Fraser
• Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen
• The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
• The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel
• West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski

My Prediction: Dune
My Vote: West Side Story
Overlooked: Passing

Best Costume Design

• Cruella – Jenny Beavan
• Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini
• Dune – Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan
• Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira
• West Side Story – Paul Tazewell

My Prediction: Cruella
My Vote: Cruella
Overlooked: House of Gucci

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Coming 2 America – Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
• Cruella – Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
• Dune – Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
• The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
• House of Gucci – Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras

My Prediction: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
My Vote: Dune
Overlooked: Nightmare Alley

Best Original Score

• Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
• Dune – Hans Zimmer
• Encanto – Germaine Franco
• Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias
• The Power of the Dog – Jonny Greenwood

My Prediction: Dune
My Vote: Dune
Overlooked: The Harder They Fall

Best Original Song

• “Be Alive” from King Richard
• “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
• “Down to Joy” from Belfast
• “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
• “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days

My Prediction: “No Time to Die”
My Vote: “No Time to Die”
Overlooked: “So May We Start” from Annette

Best Sound

• Belfast – Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, Niv Adiri
• Dune – Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett
• No Time to Die – Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, Mark Taylor
• The Power of the Dog – Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, Tara Webb
• West Side Story – Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy

My Prediction: Dune
My Vote: Dune
Overlooked: Last Night in Soho

Best Film Editing

• Don’t Look Up – Hank Corwin
• Dune – Joe Walker
• King Richard – Pamela Martin
• The Power of the Dog – Peter Sciberras
• tick, tick… BOOM! – Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum

My Prediction: Dune
My Vote: Dune
Overlooked: Licorice Pizza

Best Visual Effects

• Dune – Paul Lambert, Tristen Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer
• Free Guy – Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Dan Sudick
• No Time to Die – Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, and Chris Corbould
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, and Dan Oliver
• Spider-Man: No Way Home – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Dan Sudick

My Prediction: Dune
My Vote: Dune
Overlooked: The Suicide Squad

Enjoy the show!

Best Picture

• The Father
• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Mank
• Minari
• Nomadland
• Promising Young Woman
• Sound of Metal
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Last year, we got 9. The year before that, we had 8.

Now, we’re arbitrarily back to 8.

Can we just bring the number of Best Picture nominees back to 10, please? There are always obvious bubble picks that would fill things out nicely; this year it seems to be One Night in Miami… and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The batch this year is generally strong, especially given how profoundly the pandemic affected the release calendar. Given how many awards it’s been scooping up all season, Nomadland will certainly be the one to beat and I doubt any of the other contenders will stir up the necessary momentum to do so. I always have personal favorites that are iced out of this category but The Assistant getting completely shut out is massively disappointing.

My Prediction: Nomadland
My Vote: Sound of Metal
Overlooked: The Assistant

Best Director

• Lee Isaac Chung – Minari
• Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman
• David Fincher – Mank
• Thomas Vinterberg – Another Round
• Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

Zhao is just as much a frontrunner in the Director category as her film is in the Picture group. She and Fennell being nominated together marks the first time two female directors have been up for Director in the same year. Vinterberg is a bit of an outsider pick, although it further solidifies Another Round‘s odds for International Film. It’s a shame that Fincher scored a nod for the weakest film of his career but then again, he lost to the director of Cats the last time he was nominated so the Academy should probably atone any way they can.

My Prediction: Chloé Zhao
My Vote: Chloé Zhao
Overlooked: Kelly Reichardt – First Cow

Best Actor

• Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
• Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Anthony Hopkins – The Father
• Gary Oldman – Mank
• Steven Yeun – Minari

A strong field this year but Boseman, who passed away last August at the age of 43, will be very difficult to beat. Indeed, the Black Panther actor saved his strongest performance for last and even if he was still alive, I’d like to think his work as boisterous trumpeter Levee Green would make him a frontrunner anyway. If he wins, he would be only the second posthumous winner in the category (Network star Peter Finch being the other). Ahmed and Yeun would be very close second and third picks from me but hopefully they’ll find enough roles in their respective careers to land them nominations in the future.

My Prediction: Chadwick Boseman
My Vote: Chadwick Boseman
Overlooked: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Best Actress

• Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom 
• Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
• Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
• Frances McDormand – Nomadland
• Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

An especially competitive field this year and I could feasibly see any of these talented performers taking home the statue. McDormand and Mulligan are about neck-and-neck in terms of awards from other organizations but it’s impossible to count out Davis, who has won before and is simply one of the very best actresses working today. Kirby was indeed terrific in the underseen Pieces and the only major reason I’m considering seeing Holiday is the good word-of-mouth I’ve heard about Day’s work. It’s too bad that Elisabeth Moss, who turned in two strong performances last year, didn’t turn up here.

My Prediction: Carey Mulligan
My Vote: Frances McDormand
Overlooked: Han Ye-ri – Minari

Best Supporting Actor

• Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
• Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami…
• Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
• LaKeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

My Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya
My Vote: Daniel Kaluuya
Overlooked: J.K. Simmons – Palm Springs

Best Supporting Actress

• Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
• Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
• Olivia Colman – The Father
• Amanda Seyfried – Mank
• Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

My Prediction: Amanda Seyfried
My Vote: Maria Bakalova
Overlooked: Olivia Cooke – Sound of Metal

The Supporting Actor field turned out to be an absolute powerhouse, thanks to Judas co-stars Kaluuya and Stanfield both turning up here due to their similar amount of screen time. I would be thrilled with either actor, two of the best young talents around, bringing home the gold. Odom Jr. was a real inspiration as Sam Cooke and if Judas hadn’t made the eligibility cutoff, he would probably be my favorite. I’m a bit surprised Cohen was nominated here instead of for Borat in the Actor category, given how well the Academy seemed to like it. He only get iAct Mini; everybody know it for girls!

Even more than Actress, the Supporting Actress category is especially a toss-up. Seyfried had buzz early but in the more recent weeks, Youn and Bakalova have garnered a good deal of support and The Father‘s strong showing in overall nominations could help Colman. Close has the rare distinction of being nominated for both an Oscar and a Razzie for the very same performance. Ultimately, I’m going to go with the Academy’s penchant for Old Hollywood and forecast a win for Seyfried. It’s like I have ESPN or something!

Best Original Screenplay

• Judas and the Black Messiah – Will Berson and Shaka King
• Minari – Lee Isaac Chung
• Promising Young Woman – Emerald Fennell
• Sound of Metal – Darius Marder and Abraham Marder
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Aaron Sorkin

My Prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7
My Vote: Judas and the Black Messiah
Overlooked: The Nest

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan – Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman and Lee Kern
• The Father – Christopher Hampton & Florian Zeller
• Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
• One Night in Miami… – Kemp Powers
• The White Tiger – Ramin Bahrani

My Prediction: Nomadland
My Vote: One Night in Miami…
Overlooked: I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Best Animated Feature Film

• Onward
• Over the Moon
• A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
• Soul
• Wolfwalkers

My Prediction: Soul
My Vote: Soul
Overlooked: Scoob!

Best International Feature Film

• Another Round
• Better Days
• Collective
• The Man Who Sold His Skin
• Quo Vadis, Aida? 

My Prediction: Another Round
My Vote: Another Round
Overlooked: Night of the Kings

Best Documentary – Feature

• Collective
• Crip Camp
• The Mole Agent
• My Octopus Teacher
• Time

My Prediction: Time
My Vote: Time
Overlooked: Boys State

Best Documentary – Short Subject

• Colette
• A Concerto Is a Conversation
• Do Not Split
• Hunger Ward
• A Love Song for Latasha

My Prediction: A Love Song for Latasha
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Feeling Through
• The Letter Room
• The Present
• Two Distant Strangers
• White Eye

My Prediction: The Letter Room
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Animated Short Film

• Burrow
• Genius Loci
• If Anything Happens I Love You
• Opera
• Yes-People

My Prediction: If Anything Happens I Love You
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Production Design

• The Father – Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Sroughton
• Mank – Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
• News of the World – David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
• Tenet – Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

My Prediction: Mank
My Vote: Tenet
Overlooked: Mulan

Best Cinematography

• Judas and the Black Messiah – Sean Bobbitt
• Mank – Erik Messerschmidt
• Nomadland – Joshua James Richards
• News of the World – Dariusz Wolski
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Phedon Papamichael

My Prediction: Nomadland
My Vote: Nomadland
Overlooked: Tenet

Best Costume Design

• Emma – Alexandra Byrne
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Ann Roth
• Mank – Trish Summerville
• Mulan – Bina Daigeler
• Pinocchio – Massimo Cantini Parrini

My Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
My Vote: Emma
Overlooked: Birds Of Prey

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Emma – Marese Langan, Laura Allen, and Claudia Stolze
• Hillbilly Elegy – Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney, Matthew Mungle
• Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Matiki Anoff, Mia Neal, Larry M. Cherry
• Mank – Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams
• Pinocchio – Dalia Colli, Mark Coulier, Francesco Pegoretti

My Prediction: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
My Vote: Emma
Overlooked: Bad Hair

Best Original Score

• Da 5 Bloods – Terence Blanchard
• Mank – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
• Minari – Emile Mosseri
• News of the World – James Newton Howard
• Soul – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, and Jon Batiste

My Prediction: Soul
My Vote: Soul
Overlooked: The Vast of Night

Best Original Song

• “Fight for You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
• “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
• “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
• “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead
• “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami…

My Prediction: “Speak Now”
My Vote: “Fight for You”
Overlooked: “Jaja Ding Dong” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

Best Sound

• Greyhound – Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
• Mank – Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
• News of the World – Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
• Soul – Ren Klyce, Coya Elliot and David Parker
• Sound of Metal – Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes and Philip Bladh

My Prediction: Sound of Metal
My Vote: Sound of Metal
Overlooked: I’m Your Woman

Best Film Editing

• The Father – Yorgos Lamprinos
• Nomadland – Chloé Zhao
• Promising Young Woman – Frédéric Thoraval
• Sound of Metal – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 – Alan Baumgarten

My Prediction: The Trial of the Chicago 7
My Vote: Nomadland
Overlooked: First Cow

Best Visual Effects

• Love and Monsters – Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camailleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
• The Midnight Sky – Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawren, Max Solomon and David Watkins
• Mulan – Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steven Ingram
• The One and Only Ivan – Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
• Tenet – Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

My Prediction: Tenet
My Vote: Tenet
Overlooked: Money Plane

Enjoy the show!

Best Picture

• Ford v Ferrari
• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

Another year, another weird number of Best Picture nominees. At least this year we get 9, which is one more than last year. Of course, that means that plenty of deserving films like The Farewell and Knives Out got boxed out for that #10 spot. At this point, we seem to be in a three-way tie between Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917 and Parasite, which all hit me very differently in terms of quality. Hollywood is the current favorite and I’m inclined to agree; look no further than the fact that it has “Hollywood” in the title. Indeed, the Academy does love to love movies about Tinseltown and this year looks to be no exception, unless 1917 pulls a Moonlight.

My Prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
My Vote: Marriage Story
Overlooked: The Farewell

Best Director

• Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
• Todd Phillips – Joker
• Sam Mendes – 1917
• Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Bong Joon-ho – Parasite

This category looks to be much more difficult to call. With the exception of Phillips, you could make a case for any of the other 4 directors to take home the statue. My current gut feeling is towards Mendes, given how technically impressive his faux one-take war epic is. Bong Joon-ho, who helmed one of the most audacious and wildly enjoyable films of the year, would be my personal pick. Certainly a shame that Gerwig wasn’t represented for her terrific work in Little Women. Even though she was nominated previously for Lady Bird, her vision for Alcott’s classic novel deserved to be recognized here.

My Prediction: Sam Mendes
My Vote: Bong Joon-ho
Overlooked: Greta Gerwig – Little Women

Best Actor

• Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

A surprisingly competitive field for Best Actor this time, especially in comparison to last year. Previous Oscar winner Joaquin Phoenix seems to be an almost certainty for his undeniably great work in Joker. Great to see Adam Driver get recognition even though he won’t win; I’m sure he’ll have more chances down the road. As sleepy as The Two Popes was, Jonathan Pryce did reliably great work in it and Leonardo DiCaprio was hilarious as Hollywood‘s washed-up actor. Pain and Glory is one of the few titles nominated in a major category that I haven’t seen but I endeavor to do so before the big show.

My Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix
My Vote: Adam Driver
Overlooked: Adam Sandler – Uncut Gems

Best Actress

• Cynthia Erivo – Harriet
• Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story
• Saoirse Ronan – Little Women
• Charlize Theron – Bombshell
• Renée Zellweger – Judy

Probably my most frustrating category, as there were many brilliant female performances this year and yet, it looks very likely that the trophy will predictably go to Renée Zellweger for her admirable Judy Garland impression. I would much rather any of the other four actresses, especially Johansson, win the award and it looks like Charlize Theron has the best shot to upset. Still baffled that previous Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o got snubbed for her mesmerizing dual role in Us. The Academy did a great job at not ignoring Get Out two years ago, even though it came out early that previous year, and it’s a shame they didn’t give the same treatment to Peele’s follow-up.

My Prediction: Renée Zellweger
My Vote: Scarlett Johansson
Overlooked: Lupita Nyong’o – Us

Best Supporting Actor

• Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes
• Al Pacino – The Irishman
• Joe Pesci – The Irishman
• Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

My Prediction: Brad Pitt
My Vote: Joe Pesci
Overlooked: Willem Dafoe – The Lighthouse

Best Supporting Actress

• Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell
• Laura Dern – Marriage Story
• Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit
• Florence Pugh – Little Women
• Margot Robbie – Bombshell

My Prediction: Laura Dern
My Vote: Florence Pugh
Overlooked: Thomasin McKenzie – Jojo Rabbit

Strong supporting categories this year, especially Supporting Actor. Aside from the current favorite Brad Pitt, every other Supporting Actor nominee has won previously. I love Tom Hanks as Mr. Rogers, despite the disturbing lack of Pittsburghese in his performance, but my personal preference would be towards Pesci for his quiet commanding work in The Irishman. It’s good to have him back.

Like Pitt, Laura Dern is similarly a lock in the Supporting Actress field. I’m obviously a huge Marriage Story fan, so I’m happy with any awards that film can gather, even if Dern’s role wasn’t as challenging as some of her competitors. Willem Dafoe and Thomasin McKenzie are obvious snubs for me but I also would’ve loved to have seen a nod for 10-year-old Julia Butters, who more than holds her own against Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Best Original Screenplay

• Knives Out – Rian Johnson
• Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach
• 1917 – Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
• Parasite – Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won

My Prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
My Vote: Marriage Story
Overlooked: Booksmart

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Irishman – Steven Zaillian
• Jojo Rabbit – Taika Waititi
• Joker – Todd Phillips and Scott Silver
• Little Women – Greta Gerwig
• The Two Popes – Anthony McCarten

My Prediction: Little Women
My Vote: Little Women
Overlooked: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Best Animated Feature Film

• How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
• I Lost My Body
• Klaus
• Missing Link
• Toy Story 4

My Prediction: Toy Story 4
My Vote: Missing Link
Overlooked: Ruben Brandt, Collector

Best International Feature Film

• Corpus Christi
• Honeyland
• Les Misérables
• Pain and Glory
• Parasite

My Prediction: Parasite
My Vote: Parasite
Overlooked: Ash Is Purest White

Best Documentary – Feature

• American Factory
• The Cave
• The Edge of Democracy
• For Sama
• Honeyland

My Prediction: American Factory
My Vote: Honeyland
Overlooked: Apollo 11

Best Documentary – Short Subject

• In the Absence
• Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
• Life Overtakes Me
• St. Louis Superman
• Walk Run Cha-Cha

My Prediction: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Brotherhood
• Nefta Football Club
• The Neighbor’s Window
• Saria
• A Sister

My Prediction: Brotherhood
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Animated Short Film

• Dcera (Daughter)
• Hair Love
• Kitbull
• Memorable
• Sister

My Prediction: Hair Love
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Original Score

• Joker – Hildur Guðnadóttir
• Little Women – Alexandre Desplat
• Marriage Story – Randy Newman
• 1917 – Thomas Newman
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – John Williams

My Prediction: Joker
My Vote: 1917
Overlooked: The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Best Original Song

• “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4
• “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman
• “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough
• “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
• “Stand Up” from Harriet

My Prediction: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
My Vote: “Stand Up”
Overlooked: “Super Cool” from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

Best Sound Editing

• Ford v Ferrari – Donald Sylvester
• Joker – Alan Robert Murray
• 1917 – Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Wylie Stateman
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Matthew Wood and David Acord

My Prediction: 1917
My Vote: Ford v Ferrari
Overlooked: Waves

Best Sound Mixing

• Ad Astra – Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano
• Ford v Ferrari – Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow
• Joker – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland
• 1917 – Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano

My Prediction: 1917
My Vote: Ford v Ferrari
Overlooked: High Life

Best Production Design

• The Irishman – Production Design: Bob Shaw; Set Decoration: Regina Graves
• Jojo Rabbit – Production Design: Ra Vincent; Set Decoration: Nora Sopková
• 1917 – Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Production Design: Barbara Ling; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
• Parasite – Production Design: Lee Ha-joon; Set Decoration: Cho Won-woo

My Prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
My Vote: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Overlooked: Knives Out

Best Cinematography

• The Irishman – Rodrigo Prieto
• Joker – Lawrence Sher
• The Lighthouse – Jarin Blaschke
• 1917 – Roger Deakins
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Robert Richardson

My Prediction: 1917
My Vote: The Lighthouse
Overlooked: The Beach Bum

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Bombshell – Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker
• Joker – Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou
• Judy – Jeremy Woodhead
• Maleficent: Mistress of Evil – Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White
• 1917 – Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole

My Prediction: Bombshell
My Vote: Bombshell
Overlooked: Rocketman

Best Costume Design

• The Irishman – Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson
• Jojo Rabbit – Mayes C. Rubeo
• Joker – Mark Bridges
• Little Women – Jacqueline Durran
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood – Arianne Phillips

My Prediction: Little Women
My Vote: Little Women
Overlooked: Dolemite Is My Name

Best Film Editing

• Ford v Ferrari – Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker
• The Irishman – Thelma Schoonmaker
• Jojo Rabbit – Tom Eagles
• Joker – Jeff Groth
• Parasite – Yang Jin-mo

My Prediction: Ford v Ferrari
My Vote: Parasite
Overlooked: Apollo 11

Best Visual Effects

• Avengers: Endgame – Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick
• The Irishman – Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda
• The Lion King – Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman
• 1917 – Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker – Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy

My Prediction: Avengers: Endgame
My Vote: The Irishman
Overlooked: Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Enjoy the show!

Best Picture

• Black Panther
• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The Favourite
• Green Book
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

Sadly, this year’s batch of nominees is somewhat underwhelming. The Academy is still waffling between how many nominees should be in the category; there were 9 the past 2 years but now we only have 8. What’s wrong with just having 10 and calling it done, especially when First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk would’ve rounded things out nicely? The good news is that Roma is the current expected winner and while it’s not my personal favo(u)rite of the bunch, it’s an exceptionally well-made film that represents the category nicely.

My Prediction: Roma
My Vote: The Favourite
Overlooked: Widows

Best Director

• Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
• Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
• Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
• Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
• Adam McKay – Vice

An interesting bunch here, especially with the inclusion of Pawlikowski and the exclusion of Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born. Somehow, this is the first time that Spike Lee has been nominated for Best Director (Do the Right Thing lost Best Original Screenplay in 1990). It is truly stunning that McKay received a nomination in lieu of plenty of other more worthy directors like Barry Jenkins and Damien Chazelle. The chances are miniscule that Alfonso Cuarón, who won Best Director in 2015 for Gravity, will lose here.

My Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón
My Vote: Yorgos Lanthimos
Overlooked: Debra Granik – Leave No Trace

Best Actor

• Christian Bale – Vice
• Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
• Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

I haven’t caught up with At Eternity’s Gate (I’ll give Dafoe the benefit of the doubt) but I just can’t get excited about this field. Two of the nominees rely heavily on hair and makeup to augment their performances and I’d consider them both to be the frontrunners at this point. Elsewhere, Mortensen does what he can with a heavily stereotyped role and while Cooper is probably my favorite of this group, it’s not terribly high praise. Ethan Hawke is a glaring snub but Ryan Gosling, Joaquin Phoenix and Brady Jandreau (since the Academy seems friendly to newcomers this year) would have been much better picks too.

Update: I have now seen At Eternity’s Gate and will say that Dafoe has my vote for his committed performance as Vincent Van Gogh. I have also switched my prediction from Christian Bale to Rami Malek, who has emerged as the front runner since my original post.

My Prediction: Rami Malek
My Vote: Willem Dafoe
Overlooked: Ethan Hawke – First Reformed

Best Actress

• Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
• Glenn Close – The Wife
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

I haven’t caught up with The Wife yet (I may do so before the ceremonies) but I can say that I feel much better about this category in comparison to Best Actor. Great to see a first-time actress like Aparicio get a chance here but I also would have loved recognition for Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) and Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace) as well. It’s bizarre for me to see McCarthy here, since the wounds of The Happytime Murders still feel fresh. Close, nominated six times previously without a win, will likely take home the “Overdue Oscar” although Lady Gaga makes for an intriguing upset pick.

My Prediction: Glenn Close
My Vote: Olivia Colman
Overlooked: Toni Collette – Hereditary

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Green Book
• Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Rockwell – Vice

My Prediction: Mahershala Ali
My Vote: Richard E Grant
Overlooked: Simon Russell Beale – The Death of Stalin

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Adams – Vice
• Marina de Tavira – Roma
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone – The Favourite
• Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

My Prediction: Regina King
My Vote: Rachel Weisz
Overlooked: Claire Foy – First Man

The supporting categories this year call to mind how desperately the Academy needs to implement a Best Ensemble category. Regina King was wonderful in If Beale Street Could Talk but that film had at least 4 or 5 other supporting performances (some which only occur during one scene) that are at least as good if not better. Stone and Weisz will likely cancel each other out, a shame since their performances tower over the other three picks. I’m no fan of Vice but Steve Carell would have been a better pick than Sam Rockwell, who already won Supporting Actor last year anyway and had a much easier role in the film.

Best Original Screenplay

• The Favourite – Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara
• First Reformed – Paul Schrader
• Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie & Peter Farrelly
• Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
• Vice – Adam McKay

My Prediction: The Favourite
My Vote: The Favourite
Overlooked: Eighth Grade

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel & Ethan Coen
• BlacKkKlansman – Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
• Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener & Jeff Whitty
• If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
• A Star Is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper & Will Fetters

My Prediction: BlacKkKlansman
My Vote: If Beale Street Could Talk
Overlooked: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Animated Feature Film

• Incredibles 2
• Isle of Dogs
• Mirai
• Ralph Breaks the Internet
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

My Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
My Vote: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Overlooked: The Grinch

Best Foreign Language Film

• Capernaum
• Cold War
• Never Look Away
• Roma
• Shoplifters

My Prediction: Roma
My Vote: Roma
Overlooked: Burning

Best Documentary – Feature

• Free Solo
• Hale County This Morning, This Evening
• Minding the Gap
• Of Fathers and Sons
• RBG

My Prediction: RBG
My Vote: Minding the Gap
Overlooked: Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Documentary – Short Subject

• Black Sheep
• End Game
• Lifeboat
• A Night at the Garden
• Period. End of Sentence.

My Prediction: Black Sheep
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Detainment
• Fauve
• Marguerite
• Mother
• Skin

My Prediction: Marguerite
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Animated Short Film

• Animal Behaviour
• Bao
• Late Afternoon
• One Small Step
• Weekends

My Prediction: Bao
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Original Score

• BlacKkKlansman – Terence Blanchard
• Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson
• If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell
• Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat
• Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman

My Prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
My Vote: If Beale Street Could Talk
Overlooked: Mandy – Jóhann Jóhannsson

Best Original Song

• “All The Stars” from Black Panther
• “I’ll Fight” from RBG
• “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns
• “Shallow” from A Star Is Born
• “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

My Prediction: “Shallow”
My Vote: “Shallow”
Overlooked: “Suspirium” from Suspiria

Best Sound Editing

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• A Quiet Place
• Roma

My Prediction: First Man
My Vote: First Man
Overlooked: Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Best Sound Mixing

• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• First Man
• Roma
• A Star Is Born

My Prediction: A Star Is Born
My Vote: First Man
Overlooked: Annihilation

Best Production Design

• Black Panther
• First Man
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Roma

My Prediction: The Favourite
My Vote: The Favourite
Overlooked: Isle of Dogs

Best Cinematography

• Cold War – Lukasz Zal
• The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
• Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
• Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
• A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique

My Prediction: Roma
My Vote: The Favourite
Overlooked: If Beale Street Could Talk – James Laxton

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Border
• Mary Queen of Scots
• Vice

My Prediction: Vice
My Vote: Vice
Overlooked: Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Costume Design

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• Black Panther
• The Favourite
• Mary Poppins Returns
• Mary Queen of Scots

My Prediction: The Favourite
My Vote: The Favourite
Overlooked: A Simple Favor

Best Film Editing

• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• Green Book
• The Favourite
• Vice

My Prediction: Vice
My Vote: The Favourite
Overlooked: First Man

Best Visual Effects

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Christopher Robin
• First Man
• Ready Player One
• Solo: A Star Wars Story

My Prediction: Avengers: Infinity War
My Vote: Avengers: Infinity War
Overlooked: Searching

Enjoy the show!

Best Picture

• Call Me By Your Name
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

More than most years, this group of Best Picture nominees is particularly stellar. Each of my top 3 films from last year are present, along with a few others from my top 20, and even the ones that didn’t quite work for me are respectable achievements in their own right. It seems to be a two pony race between Shape and Billboards (Shape currently holds favor, thus my prediction) but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of the other 7 make a February push, especially after the shenanigans from last year’s Best Picture race.

My Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Vote: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Overlooked: The Big Sick

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread
• Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
• Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
• Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
• Jordan Peele – Get Out

Again, another excellent field marked with very deserved nominees. Gerwig is only the fifth woman to be nominated in the field, while Peele is only the fifth black nominee ever for the category, even more impressive when you factor in that both of their films were directorial debuts. This award is more firmly predicted for del Toro at this point, with Nolan being a dark horse for his determined work on Dunkirk.

My Prediction: Guillermo del Toro
My Vote: Paul Thomas Anderson
Overlooked: Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
• Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
• Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
• Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq

Darkest Hour remains one of my few Oscar blindspots from last year and while I’m sure Oldman does a terrific job in it as he almost always does, the role whiffs strongly of Oscar bait (especially in a year with so little of it) and I wish some of these other actors had a chance. Unfortunately, they don’t; this is one of the surest picks of the evening.

My Prediction: Gary Oldman
My Vote: Daniel Kaluuya
Overlooked: Robert Pattinson – Good Time

Best Actress

• Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
• Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
• Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
• Meryl Streep – The Post

Like Oldman for Actor, McDormand is all over this category but given how big a fan I am with her performance in Billboards (I can’t imagine what the film would have been without it), I’m excited for her to walk home with Oscar gold for the second time. Newcomer Meryl Streep nabs her very 1st nomination in…ah, sorry. Read that wrong. It’s 21st. Meryl Streep has been nominated for an Oscar 21 times.

My Prediction: Frances McDormand
My Vote: Frances McDormand
Overlooked: Jennifer Lawrence – mother!

Best Supporting Actor

• Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
• Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
• Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
• Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Prediction: Sam Rockwell
My Vote: Willem Dafoe
Overlooked: Ray Romano – The Big Sick

Best Supporting Actress

• Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
• Allison Janney – I, Tonya
• Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
• Laurie Metcalf– Lady Bird
• Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

My Prediction: Allison Janney
My Vote: Lesley Manville
Overlooked: Holly Hunter – The Big Sick

It’s Rockwell and Janney in front, with Dafoe and Metcalf trailing distantly behind them. Odd that things have shaken out this way, as Dafoe and Metcalf have been scooping up other awards left and right for their performances but as the Oscars loom large, two other frontrunners emerge. Plenty of great nods here, especially the stunt pick of Christopher Plummer in a performance captured entirely during reshoots approximately a month or two before the film was released.

Best Original Screenplay

• The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
• Get Out – Jordan Peele
• Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
• The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh

My Prediction: Lady Bird
My Vote: Get Out
Overlooked: Logan Lucky

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Call Me By Your Name – James Ivory from Call Me By Your Name by André Aciman
• The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber from The Disaster Artist: My Life Inside The Room, the Greatest Bad Movie Ever Made by Greg Sestero & Tom Bissell
• Logan – Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green from Wolverine by Roy Thomas, Len Wein & John Romita Sr.
• Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin from Molly’s Game: From Hollywood’s Elite to Wall Street’s Billionaire Boys Club, My High-Stakes Adventure in the World of Underground Poker by Molly Bloom
• Mudbound – Dee Rees & Virgil Williams from Mudbound by Hillary Jordan

My Prediction: Call Me By Your Name
My Vote: Logan
Overlooked: Their Finest

Best Animated Feature Film

• Boss Baby
• The Breadwinner
• Coco
• Ferdinand
• Loving Vincent

My Prediction: Coco
My Vote: —
Overlooked: The Lego Batman Movie

Best Foreign Language Film

• A Fantastic Woman
• The Insult
• Loveless
• On Body and Soul
• The Square

My Prediction: A Fantastic Woman
My Vote: The Square
Overlooked: Raw

Best Documentary – Feature

• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
• Faces Places
• Icarus
• Last Men in Aleppo
• Strong Island

My Prediction: Faces Places
My Vote: —
Overlooked: The Work

Best Documentary – Short Subject

• Edith & Eddie
• Heaven is a Traffic Jam
• Heroin(e)
• Knifeskills
• Traffic Stop

My Prediction: Edith & Eddie
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Live Action Short Film

• DeKalb Elementary
• The Eleven O’Clock
• My Nephew Emmet
• Silent Child
• Watu Wote:All of Us

My Prediction: DeKalb Elementary
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Animated Short Film

• Dear Basketball
• Garden Party
• Lou
• Negative Space
• Revolting Rhymes

My Prediction: Dear Basketball
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Original Score

• Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer
• Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood
• The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell

My Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Vote: Phantom Thread
Overlooked: Good Time – Oneohtrix Point Never

Best Original Song

• “Mighty River” from Mudbound
• “Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name
• “Remember Me” from Coco
• “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
• “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

My Prediction: “Remember Me”
My Vote: “Mystery of Love”
Overlooked: “The Pure And The Damned” from Good Time

Best Sound Editing

• Baby Driver
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

My Prediction: Dunkirk
My Vote: Baby Driver
Overlooked: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Best Sound Mixing

• Baby Driver
• Blade Runner 2049
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi

My Prediction: Dunkirk
My Vote: Baby Driver
Overlooked: John Wick: Chapter 2

Best Production Design

• Beauty and the Beast
• Blade Runner 2049
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• The Shape of Water

My Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Vote: Blade Runner 2049
Overlooked: It Comes At Night

Best Cinematography

• Blade Runner 2049– Roger Deakins
• Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel
• Dunkirk – Hoyte van Hoytema
• Mudbound – Rachel Morrison
• The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen

My Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
My Vote: Blade Runner 2049
Overlooked: The Killing of a Sacred Deer – Thimios Bakatakis

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• Darkest Hour
• Victoria and Abdul
• Wonder

My Prediction: Darkest Hour
My Vote: —
Overlooked: Bright

Best Costume Design

• Beauty and the Beast
• Darkest Hour
• Phantom Thread
• The Shape of Water
• Victoria and Abdul

My Prediction: Phantom Thread
My Vote: Phantom Thread
Overlooked: Wonder Woman

Best Film Editing

• Baby Driver
• Dunkirk
• I, Tonya
• The Shape of Water
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Prediction: Dunkirk
My Vote: Baby Driver
Overlooked: The Post

Best Visual Effects

• Blade Runner 2049
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.
• Kong: Skull Island
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi
• War for the Planet of the Apes

My Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
My Vote: Blade Runner 2049
Overlooked: A Ghost Story

Enjoy the show!

Best Picture

• Arrival
• Fences
• Hacksaw Ridge
• Hell or High Water
• Hidden Figures
• La La Land
• Lion
• Manchester by the Sea
• Moonlight

I went 6 for 9 on viewing and reviewing Best Picture nominees this year (hoping to catch up with Hacksaw sometime this month) but based on what I’ve seen, the Academy made some excellent picks for the top prize this time around. With a record-tying 14 nominations, the Academy clearly went gaga for La La and as it’s also my #1 film from last year, this may a rare instance where my favorite movie of a given year also wins Best Picture (perhaps the first time since The Hurt Locker in 2010). If I had to pick a potential upset, I’d look to Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight but it has a very small sliver of a chance to overcome La La Land‘s dominance.

Update – I was able to see Hacksaw Ridge recently and aside from some well-staged combat scenes, I couldn’t find very much to like about it. Outside of the sound categories, it doesn’t seem that Hacksaw will walk home with much else on Sunday night anyway.

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Midnight Special

Best Director

• Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
• Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
• Damien Chazelle – La La Land
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

As with Picture, I see this going towards La La Land by way of its visionary director Damien Chazelle who, at 32 years old, would be the youngest director to ever win the award. Chazelle was previously nominated for his fierce breakout Whiplash (which, incidentally, was my favorite film of 2014) and with this victory, he should have enough industry sway and creative control to keep making more great movies for the foreseeable future. Outside chances would again go to Moonlight via Barry Jenkins, who would become the first African-American to ever win the category.

My Prediction: Damien Chazelle
My Vote: Damien Chazelle
Overlooked: David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)

Best Actor

• Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
• Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
• Ryan Gosling – La La Land
• Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
• Denzel Washington – Fences

The prospect of La La Land winning the Big Five (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplay) runs into its biggest obstacle here, as both Affleck and Washington have a considerable lead on Gosling at this point. My personal pick would have to go to Affleck, whose wounded performance gives Manchester its poignant core, but two-time winner Washington does equally great work in his feature Fences. While I don’t think Gosling deserves to win among this particular field, he’s been a top-tier actor for some time now (he should have won when he was nominated 10 years ago for his role in Half Nelson) and I don’t doubt that an Oscar will be in his future as long as he remains smart about the work that he chooses.

Update – In the past couple weeks, this race has gotten even tighter and it’s now ostensibly a coin-flip between Affleck and Washington. My prediction remains with Affleck on the basis of his numerous wins over awards season but don’t be surprised if Washington pulls the upset.

My Prediction: Casey Affleck
My Vote: Casey Affleck
Overlooked: Colin Farrell (The Lobster)

Best Actress

• Isabelle Huppert – Elle
• Ruth Negga – Loving
• Natalie Portman – Jackie
• Emma Stone – La La Land
• Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

I’m sadly ignorant on this group, as I’ve only seen two of the five nominated performances at my time of writing this, but all signs point to Emma Stone riding the La La train to victory. Huppert won the Golden Globe for her icy performance in Elle but she doesn’t seem likely to repeat here. Meryl Streep scores her 20th (!) nomination this year, making her the most nominated performer in Academy history and a reliable nominee for pretty much any year in which she chooses to act in a film.

Update – Since my original post, I have had a chance to catch up with the other three films this category. My preference would still be with Stone but Portman would be my runner-up, as she absolutely disappears into her role as Jackie Kennedy and pulls off yet another brilliant performance.

My Prediction: Emma Stone
My Vote: Emma Stone
Overlooked: Krisha Fairchild (Krisha)

Best Supporting Actor

• Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
• Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
• Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
• Dev Patel – Lion
• Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

My Prediction: Mahershala Ali
My Vote: Mahershala Ali
Overlooked: Alden Ehrenreich (Hail, Caesar!)

Best Supporting Actress

• Viola Davis – Fences
• Naomie Harris – Moonlight
• Nicole Kidman – Lion
• Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
• Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

My Prediction: Viola Davis
My Vote: Viola Davis
Overlooked: Angourie Rice (The Nice Guys)

Plenty of great stuff in the supporting categories this year but the standouts for me (and likely the Academy) are Ali for his empathetic turn in Moonlight and Davis for her knockout role in Fences (she was nominated and should have won Supporting Actress in 2009 for her work in Doubt). I’m glad to see the young Lucas Hedges get recognition for his breakout role in Manchester and while Michael Shannon was loads of scene-chewing fun in Nocturnal Animals, I actually prefer Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s work in the same film. Naomie Harris did excellent work in Moonlight and could upset Davis come award night, while I might give Williams the edge to both of them if she potentially had more screen time in Manchester.

Best Original Screenplay

• Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
• La La Land – Damien Chazelle
• The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou
• Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
• 20th Century Women – Mike Mills

My Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
My Vote: Hell or High Water
Overlooked: Green Room – Jeremy Saulnier

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Arrival – Eric Heisserer from Story of Your Life by Ted Chiang
• Fences – August Wilson from Fences
• Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi from Hidden Figures by Margot Lee Shetterly
• Lion – Luke Davies from A Long Way Home by Saroo Brierley and Larry Buttrose
• Moonlight – Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney from In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue by Tarell Alvin McCraney

My Prediction: Moonlight
My Vote: Moonlight
Overlooked: Hunt for the Wilderpeople – Taika Waititi

Best Animated Feature Film

• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Moana
• My Life as a Courgette
• The Red Turtle
• Zootopia

My Prediction: Zootopia
My Vote: Moana
Overlooked: Sausage Party

Best Foreign Language Film

• Land of Mine
• A Man Called Ove
• The Salesman
• Tanna
• Toni Erdmann

My Prediction: Toni Erdmann
My Vote: —
Overlooked: The Handmaiden

Best Documentary – Feature

• Fire at Sea
• I Am Not Your Negro
• Life, Animated
• O.J.: Made in America
• 13th

My Prediction: O.J.: Made in America
My Vote: O.J.: Made in America
Overlooked: Weiner

Best Documentary – Short Subject

• Extremis
• 4.1 Miles
• Joe’s Violin
• Watani: My Homeland
• The White Helmets

My Prediction: The White Helmets
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Live Action Short Film

• Ennemis intérieurs
• La Femme et le TGV
• Silent Nights
• Sing
• Timecode

My Prediction: Timecode
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Animated Short Film

• Blind Vaysha
• Borrowed Time
• Pear Cider and Cigarettes
• Pearl
• Piper

My Prediction: Piper
My Vote: Borrowed Time
Overlooked: Inner Workings

Best Original Score

• Jackie – Mica Levi
• La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
• Lion – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
• Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
• Passengers – Thomas Newman

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Krisha – Brian McOmber

Best Original Song

• “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
• “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
• “City of Stars” from La La Land
• “The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story
• “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

My Prediction: “City of Stars”
My Vote: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Overlooked: “Up” (or any) from Sing Street

Best Sound Editing

• Arrival
• Deepwater Horizon
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Sully

My Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Silence

Best Sound Mixing

• Arrival
• Hacksaw Ridge
• La La Land
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
• 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

My Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Captain America: Civil War

Best Production Design

• Arrival
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Hail, Caesar!
• La La Land
• Passengers

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: The Witch

Best Cinematography

• Arrival – Bradford Young
• La La Land – Linus Sandgren
• Lion – Greig Fraser
• Moonlight – James Laxton
• Silence – Rodrigo Prieto

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: Silence
Overlooked: The Neon Demon – Natasha Braier

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• A Man Called Ove
• Star Trek Beyond
• Suicide Squad

My Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
My Vote: Star Trek Beyond
Overlooked: Nocturnal Animals

Best Costume Design

• Allied
• Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
• Florence Foster Jenkins
• Jackie
• La La Land

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Love & Friendship

Best Film Editing

• Arrival – Joe Walker
• Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
• Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts
• La La Land – Tom Cross
• Moonlight – Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Sully

Best Visual Effects

• Deepwater Horizon
• Doctor Strange
• The Jungle Book
• Kubo and the Two Strings
• Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

My Prediction: Doctor Strange
My Vote: The Jungle Book
Overlooked: Arrival

Enjoy the show!

Honorable Mention: O.J.: Made in America

I don’t often include “honorable mentions” on these lists but I made an exception because this behemoth of a documentary has popped up on many year-end lists and after viewing it myself, I can see why. The reason for the asterisk centers around O.J.: Made In America‘s concurrent status as both a feature film and a television series, as it originally aired in five episodes as part of ESPN’s 30 For 30 series but has also been screened at film festivals and is currently the frontrunner for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar. Since my viewing experience took place over a number of weeks and was separated by the five segments, I personally regard it as a series but regardless of how you see it or what medium you consider it apart of, it is a riveting and vital document.

10. Moana

Disney made headlines late last year by becoming the first studio to earn $7 billion worldwide at the box office (with help from their subsidiaries Marvel and Pixar) but it was a product of their own Animation Studios that struck a bigger chord with me than anything else that they produced. Featuring a host of winning original tunes and some of the most stunning computer animation I’ve ever seen, Moana does just about as much right as an animated musical can do. Breaking from the tradition of Disney’s “Princess” cycle, the film takes a cue from its bold protagonist and carves out a new path that feels fresher and more forward-thinking than some of the studio’s more recent efforts.

9. Manchester by the Sea

This feature by writer-director Kenneth Lonergan could be considered my “Revenant” pick for this year, as it was a film that was more of a cinematic endurance test than a traditionally good time out at the movies. While the brutality of The Revenant (which, coincidentally, was in my #9 spot last year) hinges on the elemental struggle its main character has with his surroundings, Manchester by the Sea brings that same level of turmoil and applies it to the emotional state of its lead. Casey Affleck will likely be taking home Oscar gold later this month for his thorny and insular but nonetheless brilliant performance as a man paralyzed by grief.

8. Hunt for the Wilderpeople

New Zealand director Taika Waititi keeps cranking out the hits with this effortlessly charming and relentlessly funny tale of a mismatched pair who get lost in the wilderness and unwittingly become targets of a national manhunt. “Quirky” is a word that often gets thrown around with negative connotations when describing comedies but Hunt for the Wilderpeople is loaded with all sorts of peculiar touches that make it stand with distinction above lazier efforts in the genre. Sam Neill is at his grizzled best playing a perpetually cantankerous adoptive father and newcomer Julian Dennison brings an abundance of charisma to a character that could have been irritating had a lesser actor filled the role.

7. Weiner

In a year that culminated with a presidential election marred by controversy and scandal, Weiner gave us a first-hand account of just how quickly a campaign run can crash and burn in spectacular fashion. Most documentarians would kill to have the access that directors Josh Kriegman and Elyse Steinberg had when they followed disgraced congressman Anthony Weiner during his unsuccessful bid for New York mayor and the duo squeeze every last bit of cringe-worthy comedy and bitter tragedy from the circumstances. It’s not often that you’ll find a documentary so raw that the cameraperson literally asks “why are you letting me film this?” to its subject while filming.

6. Midnight Special

2016 saw the release of two films by the abundantly talented director Jeff Nichols (I still have to catch up with his Oscar-nominated biopic Loving) but this superb sci-fi throwback/road movie has gone largely unrecognized during awards season. Midnight Special opens with one of the year’s most captivating examples of visual storytelling and never lets its foot off of the proverbial gas pedal throughout its running time. The always dependable Michael Shannon, now a five-time collaborator with Nichols, does career-best work as a father struggling to protect his son amid unparalleled circumstances and he’s amply aided by a supporting cast that includes Joel Edgerton and Adam Driver.

5. Hell or High Water

The modern Western is a genre that’s been on the rise as of late and outstanding films like Hell or High Water are a great example of how the themes of honor and justice from classic Western fare can still be relavent today. The post-recession desperation that permeates this archetypal cops and robbers tale gives it an added layer of relavence and significance that I wasn’t expecting going into the movie. Aided by sure-handed direction from Scottish filmmaker David Mackenzie and a snappy script by Taylor Sheridan, this is one of the most purely entertaining crowd-pleasers that I stumbled upon last year and I hope even more people give it a chance now that it’s available to rent.

4. Krisha

Krisha announces its intentions early from its opening shot; the stark close-up of its titular character captures her in an unflinching gaze with the audience as if she is studying us as much as we are studying her. This stunning debut by Trey Edward Shults is about as personal as filmmaking can get, as he captures the messy details of an estranged mother trying to reconcile with her family on Thanksgiving with such acuity that it’s hard to imagine he’s not drawing from his own life experiences. Along with the spot-on storytelling, lead actress Krisha Fairchild gives an immensely powerful performance that’s devoid of vanity and layered with shattering humanity.

3. Moonlight

It’s difficult to pinpoint what makes Moonlight such an extraordinary piece of filmmaking; on the surface, it’s a modest coming-of-age tale about a boy coming to terms with his race and sexuality across three periods in his life. Perhaps, then, it’s not about the “what” but rather the “how” that matters most as writer/director Barry Jenkins finds uncommon levels of empathy and eloquence to weave into the fibers of his understated narrative. Three different actors all do excellent work playing the main character at different ages but the soulful performance from Mahershala Ali in the film’s first segment resonates through each of the subsequent chapters.

2. The Lobster

It starts with a pitch like something from a Charlie Kaufman movie: in a dystopian future, all single people are gathered up and given 45 days to find a suitable life partner or else they will be transformed into an animal of their choosing. Yorgos Lanthimos’ pitch-black comedy (and surprisingly heartfelt romance) The Lobster works so well because even though the characters find themselves in a patently ridiculous scenario, their motivations and compulsions remain completely relatable. Colin Farrell and Rachel Weisz have an unbeatable chemistry that seems to come out of nowhere and elevate the tenderness amid the absurdity and the cynicism.

1. La La Land

The experience of watching Damien Chazelle’s original musical on the big screen was akin to having a skilled neurosurgeon probe various sectors of the pleasure center of my brain consecutively for two hours. In more non-clinical terms, I was absolutely enchanted by everything that La La Land had to offer not only as a love letter to classic musicals but also as a modern relationship movie that taps so thoroughly into the hopes and dreams of its main characters. I would argue that this film is more poignant and thoughtful than people seem to be giving it credit for but even if you just take it in as pure spectacle, the first-rate music and the undeniable creative vision from Chazelle should be enough to please anyone.

10. Insidious: Chapter 2

By far the most underrated of the three Insidious films, this sequel delivers more scares than the original while also remaining a true companion piece to it with narrative reveals that compliment the predecessor perfectly.

9. Sinister

Few horror movies look pure darkness in the face as unflinchingly as Sinister, which uses a home video aesthetic to depict horrifying acts of violence that threaten to drive its protagonist (played by Ethan Hawke) over the edge.

8. It Follows

David Robert Mitchell crafts a brilliantly simple conceit — what if an STD actually presented itself spontaneously in human form? — for this creepy thriller with loads of stylish throwback touches and a killer soundtrack by Disasterpeace.

7. The House of the Devil

Other entries on this list have clear influences from horror cinema of the ’70s and ’80s but with its slow burn narrative and faithful lo-fi palette, The House of the Devil truly feels like it comes from an entirely different era altogether.

6. You’re Next

This subversive take on the home invasion sub-genre has plenty of clever plot twists to keep audiences on their toes and the kind of all-out gory spectacles that you might otherwise find in some of Wes Craven’s best work.

5. The Orphanage

Borrowing from some of the visual cues that made executive producer Guillermo del Toro’s Pan’s Labyrinth such a resounding success, Spanish director J. A. Bayona puts his unique spin on this ghost story about a mother’s journey to return to her son.

4. The Babadook

Drawing influence from both traditional gothic horror and classic silent films like The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari, this bone-chilling fable creates a terrifying new creature in its titular character that feeds off the grief of a struggling single mother (played flawlessly by Essie Davis).

3. Goodnight Mommy

Featuring the creepiest cinematic twins this side of The Shining, Goodnight Mommy is an Austrian import that takes a case of mistaken identity to disturbing and unnerving extremes that will stay with viewers long after the chilling final shot.

2. Black Swan

Darren Aronofsky incorporated bits of psychological terror around the edges of his drug opus Requiem for a Dream and he puts that dread at the forefront of this dark tale about violent obsession and the endless pursuit of perfection.

1. Let the Right One In

A Swedish vampire movie may not seem to be the most conventional pick for best horror films of the past 10 years but not only does it have more than enough frightening moments to qualify, it also has outstanding performances and a poignant love story that’s sure to draw in horror purists everywhere.