2025 Oscars
List

Notes on the 2025 Oscars

Best Picture

Netflix’s quest to win Best Picture continues as Emilia Pérez, their worst contender thus far, leads the pack with a baffling 13 nominations. Despite this, it hasn’t really been considered a frontrunner during awards season, with Anora and The Brutalist primarily jockeying for first with Conclave in the mix as well. Right now, Anora seems to have the momentum but Picture could end up being a surprise this year. Speaking of surprises, I was pleasantly surprised to see I’m Still Here and my personal 2024 favorite Nickel Boys make the cut here. Obviously I’d love if the latter took home the top trophy but with the exception of Emilia Pérez, these are all worthwhile nominees.

My Prediction: Anora
My Vote: Nickel Boys
Overlooked: A Different Man

Best Director

For the first time since 1998, all five nominees in the Best Director category are first-timers. This one is less of a toss-up, as Brady Corbet will almost certainly take home the gold for his work in constructing the towering and expansive The Brutalist. It’s not his first film but the jump in scale from Vox Lux is simply staggering and Academy voters will no doubt take notice how much he accomplished on such a limited budget. Coralie Fargeat’s nomination here is especially impressive, given that only 8 other women have been recognized in the category in the past and that the Oscars have historically ignored work in the horror genre.

My Prediction: Brady Corbet
My Vote: Coralie Fargeat
Overlooked: RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys

Best Actor

If Adrien Brody is playing a Holocaust survivor in a film that starts with “The” and ends in “ist”, then it’s time to give him that statue. Kidding aside, Brody is excellent as the enigmatic László Tóth at the center of The Brutalist and is clearly a crucial component to that film’s success. I slightly prefer Colman Domingo’s tender and impassioned work in Sing Sing and was glad to see him make the list of five here. 29-year-old Timothée Chalamet is the youngest two-time Best Actor nominee since James Dean in 1957; please drive safely, Timmy. Sebastian Stan does indeed do a very convincing Trump in The Apprentice, although I preferred his work in the more challenging and thematically complex A Different Man.

My Prediction: Adrien Brody
My Vote: Colman Domingo
Overlooked: Aaron Pierre – Rebel Ridge

Best Actress

This is the category that has likely drawn the most media attention of the major awards this season, most recently due to resurfaced Tweets from Karla Sofía Gascón that have since nuked her chances. Mikey Madison was an early favorite in this group but after securing a few key acting awards, Demi Moore seems to be the current frontrunner. Her performance in The Substance was my favorite from last year, so I’d be thrilled if she took home her first Oscar at the age of 62. For the first time since 1978, all of the Best Actress nominees’ films are also nominated for Best Picture, which, to me, speaks to the importance of their work within their respective films.

My Prediction: Demi Moore
My Vote: Demi Moore
Overlooked: Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths

Best Supporting Actor

My Prediction: Kieran Culkin
My Vote: Jeremy Strong
Overlooked: Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

My Prediction: Zoe Saldaña
My Vote: Monica Barbaro
Overlooked: Joan Chen – Dìdi

Culkin is a dead lock for A Real Pain, likely the most secure of the four acting categories, and Saldaña seems like a safe bet in Supporting Actress, although Ariana Grande could pull an upset. Supporting Actor is especially strong this year, with Jeremy Strong’s work standing out to me the most, but one could make a compelling case for any of these five. Saldaña’s acting is easily the most salvageable aspect of Emilia Pérez and if that film has to win a major award, I’d rather it be here than anywhere else. Grande is obviously an enormously talented singer but given that she’s effectively doing a stellar impression what Kristin Chenoweth already did in Wicked on Broadway, I can’t select her as my top pick here.

Best Original Screenplay

My Prediction: Anora
My Vote: The Substance
Overlooked: His Three Daughters

Best Adapted Screenplay

My Prediction: Conclave
My Vote: Nickel Boys
Overlooked: The People’s Joker

Best Animated Feature Film

My Prediction: The Wild Robot
My Vote: Inside Out 2
Overlooked: Orion And The Dark

Best International Feature Film

My Prediction: I’m Still Here
My Vote: I’m Still Here
Overlooked: MadS

Best Documentary – Feature

My Prediction: No Other Land
My Vote: No Other Land
Overlooked: Daughters

Best Documentary – Short Subject

  • Death by Numbers
  • I Am Ready, Warden
  • Incident
  • Instruments Of A Beating Heart
  • The Only Girl In The Orchestra

My Prediction: I Am Ready, Warden
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Live Action Short Film

  • A Lien
  • Anuja
  • I’m Not A Robot
  • The Last Ranger
  • The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

My Prediction: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Animated Short Film

  • Beautiful Men
  • In The Shadow Of The Cypress
  • Magic Candies
  • Wander To Wonder
  • Yuck!

My Prediction: Beautiful Men
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Production Design

My Prediction: Wicked
My Vote: Dune: Part Two
Overlooked: Hundreds Of Beavers

Best Cinematography

My Prediction: The Brutalist
My Vote: The Brutalist
Overlooked: Nickel Boys

Best Costume Design

My Prediction: Wicked
My Vote: Nosferatu
Overlooked: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

My Prediction: The Substance
My Vote: The Substance
Overlooked: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Original Score

My Prediction: The Brutalist
My Vote: The Brutalist
Overlooked: Challengers

Best Original Song

  • “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez
  • “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight
  • “Like A Bird” from Sing Sing
  • “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez
  • “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

My Prediction: “El Mal”
My Vote: “Never Too Late”
Overlooked: “New Brain” from Smile 2

Best Sound

My Prediction: Dune: Part Two
My Vote: Dune: Part Two
Overlooked: Civil War

Best Film Editing

My Prediction: Conclave
My Vote: Anora
Overlooked: Dune: Part Two

Best Visual Effects

My Prediction: Dune: Part Two
My Vote: Dune: Part Two
Overlooked: Twisters

Enjoy the show!