Daily Archives: February 9, 2017

List

Notes on the 2017 Oscars

Best Picture

I went 6 for 9 on viewing and reviewing Best Picture nominees this year (hoping to catch up with Hacksaw sometime this month) but based on what I’ve seen, the Academy made some excellent picks for the top prize this time around. With a record-tying 14 nominations, the Academy clearly went gaga for La La and as it’s also my #1 film from last year, this may a rare instance where my favorite movie of a given year also wins Best Picture (perhaps the first time since The Hurt Locker in 2010). If I had to pick a potential upset, I’d look to Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight but it has a very small sliver of a chance to overcome La La Land‘s dominance.

Update – I was able to see Hacksaw Ridge recently and aside from some well-staged combat scenes, I couldn’t find very much to like about it. Outside of the sound categories, it doesn’t seem that Hacksaw will walk home with much else on Sunday night anyway.

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Midnight Special

Best Director

  • Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
  • Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
  • Damien Chazelle – La La Land
  • Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
  • Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

As with Picture, I see this going towards La La Land by way of its visionary director Damien Chazelle who, at 32 years old, would be the youngest director to ever win the award. Chazelle was previously nominated for his fierce breakout Whiplash (which, incidentally, was my favorite film of 2014) and with this victory, he should have enough industry sway and creative control to keep making more great movies for the foreseeable future. Outside chances would again go to Moonlight via Barry Jenkins, who would become the first African-American to ever win the category.

My Prediction: Damien Chazelle
My Vote: Damien Chazelle
Overlooked: David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)

Best Actor

  • Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
  • Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
  • Ryan Gosling – La La Land
  • Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
  • Denzel Washington – Fences

The prospect of La La Land winning the Big Five (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Screenplay) runs into its biggest obstacle here, as both Affleck and Washington have a considerable lead on Gosling at this point. My personal pick would have to go to Affleck, whose wounded performance gives Manchester its poignant core, but two-time winner Washington does equally great work in his feature Fences. While I don’t think Gosling deserves to win among this particular field, he’s been a top-tier actor for some time now (he should have won when he was nominated 10 years ago for his role in Half Nelson) and I don’t doubt that an Oscar will be in his future as long as he remains smart about the work that he chooses.

Update – In the past couple weeks, this race has gotten even tighter and it’s now ostensibly a coin-flip between Affleck and Washington. My prediction remains with Affleck on the basis of his numerous wins over awards season but don’t be surprised if Washington pulls the upset.

My Prediction: Casey Affleck
My Vote: Casey Affleck
Overlooked: Colin Farrell (The Lobster)

Best Actress

  • Isabelle Huppert – Elle
  • Ruth Negga – Loving
  • Natalie Portman – Jackie
  • Emma Stone – La La Land
  • Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

I’m sadly ignorant on this group, as I’ve only seen two of the five nominated performances at my time of writing this, but all signs point to Emma Stone riding the La La train to victory. Huppert won the Golden Globe for her icy performance in Elle but she doesn’t seem likely to repeat here. Meryl Streep scores her 20th (!) nomination this year, making her the most nominated performer in Academy history and a reliable nominee for pretty much any year in which she chooses to act in a film.

Update – Since my original post, I have had a chance to catch up with the other three films this category. My preference would still be with Stone but Portman would be my runner-up, as she absolutely disappears into her role as Jackie Kennedy and pulls off yet another brilliant performance.

My Prediction: Emma Stone
My Vote: Emma Stone
Overlooked: Krisha Fairchild (Krisha)

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
  • Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
  • Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
  • Dev Patel – Lion
  • Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

My Prediction: Mahershala Ali
My Vote: Mahershala Ali
Overlooked: Alden Ehrenreich (Hail, Caesar!)

Best Supporting Actress

  • Viola Davis – Fences
  • Naomie Harris – Moonlight
  • Nicole Kidman – Lion
  • Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
  • Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

My Prediction: Viola Davis
My Vote: Viola Davis
Overlooked: Angourie Rice (The Nice Guys)

Plenty of great stuff in the supporting categories this year but the standouts for me (and likely the Academy) are Ali for his empathetic turn in Moonlight and Davis for her knockout role in Fences (she was nominated and should have won Supporting Actress in 2009 for her work in Doubt). I’m glad to see the young Lucas Hedges get recognition for his breakout role in Manchester and while Michael Shannon was loads of scene-chewing fun in Nocturnal Animals, I actually prefer Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s work in the same film. Naomie Harris did excellent work in Moonlight and could upset Davis come award night, while I might give Williams the edge to both of them if she potentially had more screen time in Manchester.

Best Original Screenplay

  • Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan
  • La La Land – Damien Chazelle
  • The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou
  • Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan
  • 20th Century Women – Mike Mills

My Prediction: Manchester by the Sea
My Vote: Hell or High Water
Overlooked: Green Room – Jeremy Saulnier

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • Arrival – Eric Heisserer from Story of Your Life by Ted Chiang
  • Fences – August Wilson from Fences
  • Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi from Hidden Figures by Margot Lee Shetterly
  • Lion – Luke Davies from A Long Way Home by Saroo Brierley and Larry Buttrose
  • Moonlight – Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney from In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue by Tarell Alvin McCraney

My Prediction: Moonlight
My Vote: Moonlight
Overlooked: Hunt for the Wilderpeople – Taika Waititi

Best Animated Feature Film

My Prediction: Zootopia
My Vote: Moana
Overlooked: Sausage Party

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Land of Mine
  • A Man Called Ove
  • The Salesman
  • Tanna
  • Toni Erdmann

My Prediction: Toni Erdmann
My Vote: —
Overlooked: The Handmaiden

Best Documentary – Feature

  • Fire at Sea
  • I Am Not Your Negro
  • Life, Animated
  • O.J.: Made in America
  • 13th

My Prediction: O.J.: Made in America
My Vote: O.J.: Made in America
Overlooked: Weiner

Best Documentary – Short Subject

  • Extremis
  • 4.1 Miles
  • Joe’s Violin
  • Watani: My Homeland
  • The White Helmets

My Prediction: The White Helmets
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Live Action Short Film

  • Ennemis intérieurs
  • La Femme et le TGV
  • Silent Nights
  • Sing
  • Timecode

My Prediction: Timecode
My Vote: —
Overlooked: —

Best Animated Short Film

  • Blind Vaysha
  • Borrowed Time
  • Pear Cider and Cigarettes
  • Pearl
  • Piper

My Prediction: Piper
My Vote: Borrowed Time
Overlooked: Inner Workings

Best Original Score

  • Jackie – Mica Levi
  • La La Land – Justin Hurwitz
  • Lion – Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka
  • Moonlight – Nicholas Britell
  • Passengers – Thomas Newman

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Krisha – Brian McOmber

Best Original Song

  • “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land
  • “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls
  • “City of Stars” from La La Land
  • “The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story
  • “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

My Prediction: “City of Stars”
My Vote: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Overlooked: “Up” (or any) from Sing Street

Best Sound Editing

  • Arrival
  • Deepwater Horizon
  • Hacksaw Ridge
  • La La Land
  • Sully

My Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Silence

Best Sound Mixing

My Prediction: Hacksaw Ridge
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Captain America: Civil War

Best Production Design

  • Arrival
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Hail, Caesar!
  • La La Land
  • Passengers

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: The Witch

Best Cinematography

  • Arrival – Bradford Young
  • La La Land – Linus Sandgren
  • Lion – Greig Fraser
  • Moonlight – James Laxton
  • Silence – Rodrigo Prieto

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: Silence
Overlooked: The Neon Demon – Natasha Braier

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

My Prediction: Star Trek Beyond
My Vote: Star Trek Beyond
Overlooked: Nocturnal Animals

Best Costume Design

  • Allied
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • Florence Foster Jenkins
  • Jackie
  • La La Land

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Love & Friendship

Best Film Editing

  • Arrival – Joe Walker
  • Hacksaw Ridge – John Gilbert
  • Hell or High Water – Jake Roberts
  • La La Land – Tom Cross
  • Moonlight – Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon

My Prediction: La La Land
My Vote: La La Land
Overlooked: Sully

Best Visual Effects

My Prediction: Doctor Strange
My Vote: The Jungle Book
Overlooked: Arrival

Enjoy the show!